有人说“爱情是男人和女人之间一场永恒的战争”。在我们看来,经济预测则永远是乐观派与悲观派之间的一场战争。早在今年4月,一位国内著名经济学家就提出一个观点:“今年经济增长将冲‘八’望‘九’”,一时间成了乐观派最突出的代表。与此同时,某一权威机构则声称:“全年保‘七’也有难度。”随着时间的推移,一个接一个的经济数据闪亮登场,乐观派逐步控制了媒体的咽喉。然而,我们想指出的是,鲜花虽娇美,还需要防止其凋零。驼鸟式的盲目乐观和杞人忧天式的盲目悲观实际上都不可取。 ——作者题记 Some people say “love is an eternal war between men and women.” In our opinion, economic forecasts will always be a war between optimists and pessimists. As early as April this year, a well-known domestic economist put forward a view: “This year economic growth will rush to ’eight’ and ’nine’,” and for a time has become the most prominent representative of the optimists. In the meantime, an authority claims: “It is also difficult to secure ’full year’ coverage.” As time went by, economic data one by one debuted, and optimists gradually controlled the media’s throat. However, what we want to point out is that beautiful flowers need to prevent their dying. Ostrich-style blind optimism and unfounded blind pessimism are actually not desirable. - Author inscription