世界范围内的水坝数量及役龄日益增加,对其安全也日益关心,出现了许多安全评价导则和规范,出现了许多关于现有坝状况的数据和报告,及改善现有坝状况的建议.有些建议是可行的,而另一些建议由于资金不足或因对坝的寿命存在无限长的隐含假定而不可行.为解析式地评价坝的安全曾广泛使用的一个标准是安全系数,给荷载和抗力均假定有一确定值.该法未考虑荷载和抗力的不确定性,而且许多坝的失事原因解析模拟所不能求得的. Increasing number and age of dams worldwide are also increasingly concerned with their safety, with many safety assessment guidelines and codes emerging, numerous data and reports on the status of existing dams and recommendations for improving the status of existing dams Some of the recommendations are feasible, while others are not viable due to underfunding or implicit assumptions about the infinite life of the dam One criterion widely used to analytically evaluate the safety of dams is the safety factor Both loads and resistances are assumed to have a certain value, which does not take account of the uncertainty of loads and resistances and can not be obtained by analytical simulation of the causes of failure of many dams.