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通过对比我国保险周期与经济周期波动图发现,保险周期并不是严格顺经济周期持续,而是在总体上顺周期特征下,保持保险业市场波动的自身特点,其波动频率及波动幅度与经济周期波动具有显著差异。这表明我国保险市场波动既受到宏观经济环境的影响,也受到保险业自身产业政策的显著影响。此外,寿险与产险两大市场的波动性受宏观经济指标的影响并不一致,保险监管部门应始终监测并充分考虑分险种市场的不同波动特征,以提高逆周期监管的有效性。
By comparing China’s insurance cycle with the economic cycle, it is found that the insurance cycle does not strictly follow the economic cycle, but maintains its own characteristics under the pro-cyclical characteristics of the general insurance market. The fluctuation frequency and volatility and the economic cycle Fluctuation has significant differences. This shows that the volatility of China’s insurance market is not only affected by the macroeconomic environment, but also by the insurance industry’s own industrial policy significantly affected. In addition, the volatility of life and property markets is not consistent with the macroeconomic indicators. Insurance regulators should always monitor and fully consider the different volatility characteristics of the segmented markets so as to enhance the effectiveness of countercyclical regulation.