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目的应用灰色关联分析法探讨瑞昌市血吸虫病流行的主要影响因素,为完善瑞昌市血吸虫病防控策略提供决策依据。方法应用灰色关联分析方法对瑞昌市2004-2011年的血吸虫人群血检阳性率(Y)及影响血吸虫病流行的8个因素(实有钉螺面积X1、灭螺面积X2、治疗病人数X3、扩大化疗人数X4、存栏数X5、病牛感染率X6、治疗病牛率X7、扩大化疗率X8)进行分析。结果血检阳性率与上述8个指标的关联系数分别为G(1,1)=0.280,G(1,2)=0.259,G(1,3)=0.454,G(1,4)=0.231,G(1,5)=0.338,G(1,6)=0.296,G(1,7)=0.197,G(1,8)=0.238,关联序为X3>X5>X6>X1>X2>X8>X4>X7。结论灰色关联分析法能综合评价影响血吸虫病流行的主要因素,为进一步优化该市血吸虫病的防控策略提供科学的依据。
Objective To explore the main influencing factors of schistosomiasis prevalence in Ruichang City by gray relational analysis and to provide a basis for decision-making on the prevention and control of schistosomiasis in Ruichang. Methods Gray relational analysis was used to analyze the positive rate of blood tests (Y) and the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Ruichang City from 2004 to 2011 (including snail area X1, snail area X2, number of treated patients X3, Expand the number of chemotherapy X4, the number of X5, cattle infection rate X6, treatment of cattle rate X7, to expand the rate of chemotherapy X8) were analyzed. Results The correlation coefficients of the positive rate of blood test and the above eight indexes were G (1,1) = 0.280, G (1,2) = 0.259, G (1,3) = 0.454, G , G (1,5) = 0.338, G (1,6) = 0.296, G (1,7) = 0.197 and G (1,8) = 0.238 with the correlation order X3> X5> X6> X8> X4> X7. Conclusion Gray correlation analysis can comprehensively evaluate the main factors affecting the prevalence of schistosomiasis and provide a scientific basis for further optimization of the prevention and control strategies of schistosomiasis in the city.