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根据历史台风的相似路径将台风分为西行、西北沿海登陆和海上转向三类，并分析了各类500hPa高度场的特征。通过对台风位移与其相应的500hPa高度场的典型相关分析，提取了天气强迫信息，连同台风的一些气候学和持续性特征作为待选因子，采用多级逐步判别方法，建立台风72h路径趋势的各类判别函数。预报时，代入72h500hPa数值预报产品及气候持续性因子。通过对1990～1994年的独立台风进行了试报检验。结果表明，试报的准确率为88.8％，Heidke技巧得分为0．80。该方法为南海台风中期路径趋势预报提供了一种客观方法。
The typhoon is divided into westbound, northwestern coastal landing and maritime diversion according to the similar path of historical typhoon, and the characteristics of various 500hPa geopotential height fields are analyzed. Through the typical correlation analysis between the typhoon displacement and its corresponding 500hPa geopotential height field, the weather forcing information is extracted, and some climatological and persistence characteristics of the typhoon are selected as the candidate factors. Multi-step stepwise discriminant method is used to establish the trend of the typhoon 72h Class discriminant function. Forecast, into the 72h500hPa numerical forecast products and climate sustainability factors. Through the test of independent typhoon from 1990 to 1994, The results showed that the accuracy of the test report was 88.8%, Heidke skill score was 0.80. This method provides an objective method for forecasting the mid-term typhoon track in the South China Sea.