投资潍柴动力:请不要用简单粗暴的归纳逻辑

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关于潍柴动力(000338)这家公司,市场目前最大的分歧点是整车厂一体化,认为潍柴的客户做大后,都要做自己的发动机,这时作为一个独立发动机便不得不面对蛋糕被过去的客户吃掉的情况。市场对这一认知主要是来源于欧美发达国家重卡行业垂直化的经验,很显然支持这一逻辑者不在少数。从哲学和生活经验看,这是一种简单粗暴且易于接受的归纳逻辑推理,但我们必须知道,归纳推理常常容易导致结果出错,那些选择了归纳推理的 About Weichai Power (000,338) The company, the market is currently the biggest difference between the integration of OEMs, Weichai customers think bigger, they have to do their own engine, then had to be an independent engine surface The case of the cake being eaten by the past customers. Market perception of this is mainly derived from the verticalization of the heavy truck industry in developed countries in Europe and the United States experience, it is clear that there are many who support this logic. From a philosophical and life experience point of view, this is a simple crude and easily accepted inductive logical reasoning, but we must know that inductive reasoning often leads to wrong results. Those who choose inductive inference
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