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消费行为除了受到收入因素、心理因素等微观因素的决定外,是否还受宏观结构性因素的重要影响,关乎消费函数理论的科学性和解释力。现存消费函数理论普遍忽视了宏观结构性因素对于微观消费行为的影响。基于产业结构升级的结构跃变会中断短期边际消费倾向连续递减的过程,使之跃升、回归至稳态的长期水平;长期消费曲线CL为短期消费曲线Csn的包络线,表现出斜率稳定的线性特征;C_s_n沿C_L阶梯式跃升;长期中,MPCL=APCL。因此,产业结构跃变是决定消费函数的不可忽视的重要变量。经常性结构跃变能够带来“高收入、高消费率”的消费组合,而结构跃变停滞则会导致“低消费率、低收入陷阱”的组合。文章由此构建了一个从宏观到微观的分析框架,提出基于结构跃变假说的消费函数理论模型,并运用美、日两国的历史数据进行实证检验。这为“消费函数之谜”等悖论现象的破解提供了新视野,同时为扩大内需提供了新思路。
In addition to the consumer behavior by the income factors, psychological factors and other micro-factors, whether the macro-structural factors are still important impact on the consumer function theory of science and explanatory power. Existence of consumer function theory generally ignored the impact of macro-structural factors on micro-consumption behavior. The structural change based on the upgrading of industrial structure will interrupt the process of continuous decreasing of short-run marginal propensity to consume, so that it will rise and return to the long-term steady state. The long-term consumption curve CL is the envelope of short-term consumption curve Csn and shows a stable slope Linear characteristics; C_s_n stepwise jump along C_L; long term, MPCL = APCL. Therefore, the jump in industrial structure is an important variable that can not be ignored in determining the consumption function. A recurring structural shift can lead to “high-income, high-consumption-rate” consumer portfolios, while a structural shift in stagnation leads to a combination of “low rates of consumption and low-income traps.” The article builds an analytical framework from macro to micro, proposes a theoretical model of consumption function based on the structural jump hypothesis, and uses the historical data of the United States and Japan for empirical test. This provides a new horizons for the solution of the paradoxical phenomenon such as “the mystery of the consumption function”, and at the same time provides new ideas for expanding domestic demand.