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目的探讨气象因素与手足口病发病的相关性及其相关程度。方法采用Poisson回归进行气象因素与手足口病发病的单因素分析,多因素分析则采用广义相加模型。结果手足口病发病数与日平均气温和日最低气温表现为线性相关趋势,与日最高气温、日最低气湿、日照时数之间表现为曲线相关趋势。具体表现为,当日最高气温在低于29℃时,随着气温的升高,手足口病发生危险上升,高于29℃时发病危险性将下降;最小相对湿度在小于50%以及大于等于60%时,手足口病的发生危险性随最小相对湿度的增加而上升,在50%~60%期间手足口病的发生危险性小幅下降;日照时数在5~10 h之间与手足口病的发生呈负相关,大于等于10 h时则呈正相关。同时,Poisson回归分析结果显示,手足口病的发生与气压、风速呈负相关。结论大连市气温、气湿、日照时数等气象因素对手足口病的发生有影响,因此,在建立手足口病预测模型时,应考虑气象因素的作用。
Objective To explore the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and their correlation. Methods Poisson regression was used to analyze the single factor analysis of meteorological factors and HFMD. Multivariate analysis was based on generalized additive model. Results The incidence of HFMD was linearly correlated with the daily mean temperature and daily minimum temperature, and showed a trend of curve correlation with daily maximum air temperature, daily minimum air humidity and sunshine duration. Specifically, the day when the maximum temperature is below 29 ℃, as the temperature increases, HFMD dangerous rise above 29 ℃ risk of decline will be; minimum relative humidity less than 50% and greater than or equal to 60 %, The risk of HFMD increased with the increase of the minimum relative humidity. The risk of HFMD decreased slightly during 50% ~ 60% of the total. The duration of sunshine duration was between 5 and 10 hours with HFMD The incidence was negatively correlated, is greater than or equal to 10 h was positively correlated. Meanwhile, Poisson regression analysis showed that hand-foot-mouth disease was negatively correlated with air pressure and wind speed. Conclusion The meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity and sunshine time in Dalian affect the occurrence of hand-foot-mouth disease. Therefore, meteorological factors should be taken into account when establishing the prediction model of hand-foot-mouth disease.