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全球价值链分工背景下,“贸易转移”和“贸易折返”问题日趋严重,“总值”统计难以追踪出口价值的来源与利益分配。本文基于WIOD数据库和MRIO分析框架,从增值构成、国别贡献、商品结构、产业变动四个层面分析了中国出口额的GVC来源,结果表明:出口国内增加值率呈现“U”型轨迹,近1/4的价值由国外提供;美、日、德等发达国家贡献比较高,发展中国家占比有所提升;中国嵌入GVC的程度不断加深,中间产品贸易贡献的价值逐步提高;主要出口产业国内增加值率较低,且整体趋于下降态势。因而,中国出口增长既有利于本国经济的发展,也是对世界经济的贡献,但中国劳动密集型产业存在价值链“低端锁定”的风险。
In the context of the division of labor in the global value chain, the problems of “trade transfer ” and “trade reentry ” have become increasingly serious, and the “gross ” statistics can hardly trace the source and distribution of the export value. Based on the WIOD database and the MRIO framework, this paper analyzes the sources of GVC in China’s exports from four aspects: value-added composition, country contribution, product structure and industrial change. The results show that the value-added rate of domestic exports shows “U” , Nearly a quarter of the value provided by foreign countries; the United States, Japan, Germany and other developed countries contributed to higher, the proportion of developing countries increased; China’s embedded GVC deepening, the value of intermediate products trade gradually increased; the main The domestic value-added rate of export industries is low, and the overall trend tends to decline. Therefore, China’s export growth will not only help the development of its own economy but also contribute to the world economy. However, there is a risk that the labor-intensive industries in China will have a “low-end” value chain.