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地震是破坏性很大的自然灾害,世界上没有一个地方比中国和东亚沿海地区经历过更多的地震。同样的,干旱、洪水以及其它气候灾害也是世界上屡见不鲜的事件。本文提出了将这两种地球物理现象联系起来的理论。 早在80年代初期,便已提出气候变化的决定性的分析模式。该模式与古气候时间序列相符合,并可用于预报,它成功地经受过几年的检验。早先对该模式在地质时标上的核实,在这里我们将之延伸到近代历史。并且根据万有引力常数(G)随时间变化的可能性提出了关于气候变化原因的解释。G的变化意味着构造活动性(如地震)与气候特性(如由模式所表示的全球温度变化)的同步变化。因此,该模式也为地震预报提供了希望。 作者提出了解释在某一时间段内不同地区地震活动性的交替的理论。该理论通过对中国廿世纪发生的里克特震级大于或等于6的许多地震的检验。在小比例尺地形制图精度以及在震中定位的低灵敏度范围内,所获结果是令人鼓舞的。
Earthquakes are devastating natural disasters, and no place in the world has experienced more earthquakes than in China and the coastal regions of East Asia. Likewise, droughts, floods and other climate disasters are also common occurrences in the world. This paper presents a theory that relates these two kinds of geophysical phenomena. As early as the early 1980s, a decisive analysis of climate change has been proposed. This model is consistent with paleoclimate time series and can be used for forecasting, which has successfully undergone years of testing. Earlier the verification of the model on the geological time scale, where we extend it to modern history. And an explanation of the causes of climate change is presented based on the likelihood that the gravitational constant (G) will change over time. The change in G implies a synchronous change in tectonic activity (eg, earthquakes) and climatic characteristics (eg, global temperature changes as indicated by the model). Therefore, this model also provides hope for earthquake prediction. The authors propose an alternative theory to explain the seismicity in different regions over a period of time. The theory examines many earthquakes with a Rickett Magnitude greater than or equal to 6 that occurred in China in the 20th century. The results obtained are encouraging at small scale topographic mapping accuracy and in the low sensitivity range of epicenter positioning.