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基于太子河南源南甸站1960~2011年逐月径流资料,采用余期望系数、集中度、集中期和绝对变化幅度等指标分析了径流年内分配特征,并采用Mann-Kendall法和R/S分析法预测了年内各月、4季径流及其特征指标变化趋势。结果表明,南甸站径流年内呈单峰型分布,最大、最小月径流分别出现在8月和1月;1~12月及4季径流量均呈减少变化,仅2、4、8月径流量呈不显著减少趋势;未来3月径流量呈增加变化趋势,其余月份及季节径流量将持续减少;目前和未来径流年内分配不均匀程度增加,但集中程度和变化幅度减少。
Based on the monthly runoff data from 1960 to 2011 in Taizu source South Station, the distribution characteristics of annual runoff were analyzed using the expected coefficient, concentration, concentration and absolute change range. The Mann-Kendall method and R / S analysis The law predicts the trend of monthly and seasonal runoff and its characteristic indexes in the year. The results showed that the runoff at Nandian station was unimodal and the maximum and minimum monthly runoff occurred in August and January respectively. The runoff in January ~ December and April decreased with the increase of only 2, 4 and 8 months The runoff in the next three months showed an increasing trend, while the runoff in the remaining months and the seasons continued to decrease. The distribution unevenness of current and future runoff increased during the year, but the degree of concentration and change decreased.