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1 问题的提出就目前而言,林业生产同其它行业相比,作业粗放,环境恶劣,危险性大,经常发生危险性事故,从而影响企业的生产和经济效益。因此,林业企业急需安全系统工程的研究,以提高其安全水平。本文试图用灰色系统理论,根据林业企业安全生产系统逐年的事故数据序列,建立预测林业企业安全生产系统的生产事故变化规律的灰色宏观动态预测模型,为逐步实现生产系统的本质安全化服务。
1 Proposal for the Issue At present, compared with other industries, forestry production has extensive operations, bad environment, high danger and frequent dangerous accidents, which will affect the production and economic benefits of enterprises. Therefore, forestry enterprises urgently need safety systems engineering research to improve their safety level. This paper attempts to establish a gray macro-dynamic forecasting model for predicting the variation of production accidents in the safety production system of forestry enterprises based on the gray system theory and according to the yearly accident data series of the safety production systems of forestry enterprises, in order to gradually realize the intrinsic safety of the production system.