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产业经济要稳步发展,必须有准确的市场前景预测。但当某些产业成为政府主导的投资热潮时,人们对它的市场分析预测就会趋于过度乐观,将商机放大却小觑了投资风险,最终导致投资失利。中国高尔夫产业的发展状况还不单受制于这个市场规律——由于地方政府和高尔夫会所经营者都在球场收入以外博弈,相中的分别是政绩工程或房地产投资的高额回报,被无限放大的高尔夫商机中就富含了人为操盘的因素。一时间,有关机构对全国高球人口数、来华高球游客量、高球场的市场需求量、球场赢利空间等指标的乐观预测,令不少业外人士都觉得可笑。中国究竟需要多少高尔夫球场?这个“数字魔方”正在由一些地方的政府官员们把玩着,没有一组官方数据不是在同欧美国家的简单对比下作出白勺。问题是,我们和欧美发达国家有着同样的国情吗?
Industrial economy to develop steadily, there must be accurate market forecast. However, when some industries become the government-led investment craze, people will tend to be overly optimistic about market analysis and forecast. Magnifying business opportunities but underestimating investment risks will eventually lead to investment losses. The development of the golf industry in China is not only subject to the laws of the market - due to the local government and golf club operators are outside the stadium revenue game, respectively, the high performance engineering or real estate investment returns, was magnified golf Business opportunities in the rich man-made factors. For a time, the optimistic forecast made by the relevant agencies on such indicators as the number of golf balls in the country, the number of tourists visiting golf balls in China, the market demand for golf courses and the profitability of stadiums has caused many lay people to feel ridiculous. How many golf courses do China need? The “digital cube” is being played by government officials in some places. No official data is not made under the simple comparison with the European and American countries. The question is, do we have the same national conditions as developed countries in Europe and the United States?